Confirmed: Invest 92l Projected to Become Tropical Storm

A monitored disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, labeled Invest 92L, is showing better organization. The hurricane center puts its formation odds at 90 percent in the next 48 hours and expects a tropical depression to form within a day. If it reaches tropical-storm strength, it would be named Isaias. NOAA’s Gulfstream jet is scheduled to sample the environment today, with an Air Force reconnaissance flight Wednesday.

The system should drift east, then turn north or northeast late this week toward the northern Gulf Coast. Guidance focuses the threat from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with approach most likely Friday or Saturday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected along and east of the track, with coastal surge and a few tornadoes possible.

How strong it gets remains uncertain. Increasing wind shear near the northern Gulf should cap intensification and push the worst weather to the east of the center, and estimates for hurricane development range from about 15 to 30 percent. Most model tracks keep Texas out of the core, while rainfall near and east of landfall could reach 4 to 8 inches with locally higher totals.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources