Origin: NOAA Declares El Niño Officially Started
El Niño is now officially underway as the tropical Pacific warms and the atmosphere responds. Forecasts put the chance of a very strong event at 63% by late fall and early winter, and 88% that it will be strong or very strong.
In California, this raises the chance of a wetter, stormier winter in the south, with higher risk of urban flooding, debris flows and coastal erosion. Warmer storms could mean more rain and less Sierra Nevada snow even if totals rise, and local sea levels in winter can sit roughly 6 to 10 inches higher during major El Niño events, amplifying high‑tide flooding.
Past El Niños dragged on growth by trillions of dollars worldwide, including about $4.1 trillion after 1982–83 and roughly $5.7 trillion after 1997–98, and current outlooks point to the potential for one of the costliest events on record, with losses accruing over years and estimates topping $1.8 trillion in the U.S. by 2032. Agriculture hot spots to watch include Southeast Asia and India, where below‑normal rainfall often cuts yields; Indonesian rice farmers are already planting early, and Malaysia has warned of average yield drops of 8% to 10% this year.
Synthesized from 7 sources
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AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources
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