New Facts: NOAA projects very strong El Niño

NOAA raised the outlook for El Niño, putting the chance of a very strong event this fall and winter above 90%. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above normal and have been climbing over the past month.

The new outlook also assigns a 69% chance that this El Niño becomes historic, surpassing the strength of any since records began in 1950. Forecasts show continued strengthening through the end of the year. This moves the baseline from strong to very strong being overwhelmingly likely, with a record-setting peak now on the table.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources