The 2026 U.S. Midterms

The story so far

As of October 9, 2026

Early voting is underway nationwide after Virginia opened in-person sites on Sept. 18, starting a six-week run to Nov. 3. Rules for voting by mail remain unsettled after two federal judges froze a new order from President Trump to tighten mail voting, with the Supreme Court expected to weigh in. Democrats have adjusted their mail-voting outreach as voter wariness grows, and the first early vote data shows signs of a Democratic edge.

The start came as Virginia’s attorney general, Jay Jones, warned that the Department of Homeland Security may have broken state election laws. A whistleblower described a DHS program that had U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services staff, after less than two hours of training, running federal lists through state voter systems to find supposed noncitizen voters. The account says staff were told to review about 40 people a day, leaving roughly 12 minutes per person, and to create federal records on anyone flagged. Jones told Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin that Virginia’s voter lookup tools can only be used by individuals checking their own records, and he demanded written confirmation of what DHS directed and preservation of access logs and training materials.

This has turned the opening days of voting into a test of two boundaries at once: how far federal agencies can go in policing voter eligibility, and how firmly states control access to their election systems. The Trump administration has made noncitizen voting a central fraud claim and the Justice Department has sued to obtain detailed voter data from 30 states and the District of Columbia, even as documented cases of noncitizen voting are rare. The alleged DHS workflow’s speed targets and record-creation matter here because they shape how many names get flagged and what follows for those voters while an election is already in progress.

At the same time, the battlefield is wider than Republicans planned. In Florida, races once seen as safe are now toss-ups despite Trump’s 13-point win there in 2024, and Democrats now hold a clear advantage heading into Nov. 3, reflected in public polling and early voting indicators. Several GOP campaigns are contending with high-profile scandals, and the campaign season is unfolding against the backdrop of an ongoing war with Iran and a tough economy. Republicans have kept the Senate in session for final votes, including a bipartisan bill on college sports endorsements, even as campaigns peak. The immediate stakes are whether Democrats can convert a polling lead into control of one or both chambers, and whether Republicans can hold ground in places they once treated as safe.